Even in the best of times, more normal times, the margin for error for Ohio State's football team was very slim.
Since the advent of the College Football Playoff six years ago, the Buckeyes have never lost more than two games in a season, yet have only qualified for the CFP three times. Ironically, they won the national championship in the 2014 inaugural season when many felt they should have been left out of the playoffs.
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They have won the Big Ten Championship each of the last three years, but in that span qualified for the CFP only last season. They had one-loss seasons in 2015 and 2018 and didn't make it.
But now a teeny, tiny margin for error is even smaller, if that's possible. It's just not about scoring in the red zone, turnover margin or running the table anymore. It's also about COVID-19 testing.
In announcing Wednesday there will be a Big Ten football season after all, the league trotted out a nine-week schedule that will begin the weekend of Oct. 24 and culminate with the conference championship game and six other cross-division games (second place vs. second place, third place vs. third place, etc.) on Dec. 19.
Prior to canceling fall sports on Aug. 11, the Big Ten had planned a schedule of 10 conference games in 12 weeks, to allow for possible COVID-related cancellations, with additional flexibility around the Big Ten Championship Game.
Now there will be zero wiggle room.
The league is banking on the availability of more rapid testing, more accurate testing for coronavirus to make this plan do-able. Faster test results and the implementation of comprehensive cardiac testing — in response to studies that have shown possible links to the virus and myocarditis, an inflammation of the heart — have given conference presidents and chancellors confidence to change course and unanimously opt to join the SEC, ACC and Big 12 in playing football this fall. Everybody now waits to see if the PAC-12, the remaining Power 5 conference, reconsiders like the Big Ten.
I guess, then, we should celebrate the return of college football in Columbus.
I guess.
The decision comes at a time when Wisconsin's campus is shut down due to a spike in positive COVID-19 tests. Infection rates spiked recently at Illinois and Michigan State. Iowa and Maryland both recently suspended workouts, though both have since resumed.
Ed Orgeron, the head coach of defending national champion LSU, has always sounded from his tone like he treats positive cases like hamstring pulls. That was even before his shocking admission during a press conference Tuesday.
"I think most of our players, not all of our players but most of our players have caught it," Orgeron said. "Most of the players that have caught it we feel are going to be eligible for the (opener). For the players who haven't caught it, we talk to them about being very careful so they're eligible for games."
Good enough, right?
Even at Ohio State, which has kept reminding us during this process that it is following all protocols, had to shut down practice for six days this summer at a time when they were simply practicing in shorts and the large majority of students weren't on campus. It was almost a quasi-bubble and still there were problems.
"Regardless of how we got here and how painful it was along the time we waited to get to this moment, that's all behind us," OSU athletic director Gene Smith said during an online Zoom call with reporters Wednesday, referring to player, coach and fan frustration over the lack of transparency from the Big Ten on why it shut sports down in the first place.
"What's beautiful is that we have process and protocols in place based upon science and lessons learned. As you all know there are 12, 13 games that have been postponed as a result of COVID. We're hopeful that with this path, this runway, and what we've learned, we might be in a position where we can continue to play."
Because of new information presented to Big Ten officials from its medical advisory group, co-chaired by OSU team physician Dr. James Borchers, and the availability of rapid testing, new Ohio State president Kristina Johnson is confident the Big Ten will have a "clean playing field with no athletes on the field who have COVID."
Johnson officially became president on Sept. 1 but she was thrown into this fire much sooner than that. She was one of the three school presidents in the 14-team Big Ten that did not vote in favor of canceling the season in August. She, Smith and head football coach Ryan Day were aligned in preferring a delay to any decision.
"I love this league and I love Ohio State," Johnson said on Wednesday's Zoom call. "I think what (this process) has taught me is that the Big Ten Conference wants to be a leader. And we've been a leader in many ways. In particular, we took the time to study a couple things that are really important.
"How can we get a clean playing field? And then with myocarditis, we want it so that all individuals that might test positive, including our student athletes, before they return to working out, they get tested to see if they have myocarditis.
"That's as important for our student body, our faculty and staff, as it is for the athletes. These are the sorts of things we needed to understand. As a result I think we've come out with a protocol, process and way to play. And what I'm thrilled about is that we can play for all the marbles."
Of course, Ohio State was always the biggest dog in this fight to play. The Buckeyes were ranked No. 2 in the preseason Associated Press poll and are odds-on favorites to win their fourth consecutive Big Ten title and make a repeat trip to the playoffs, where they lost in the 2019 semifinals to Clemson.
Those odds might not be as great now. Two of their best players, cornerback Shaun Wade and guard Wyatt Davis, tired of waiting for the Big Ten to reverse field, decided in the past week to opt-out of the 2020 season and instead prepare for the NFL Draft as projected first round picks.
It wouldn't be surprising if they end up playing after all. Davis, in fact, called Smith while he was on the teleconference with reporters. The reason both players came back this year was to help the Buckeyes win a national championship. And that will probably still be on the table with the CFP selection committee pushing back its decision to name its four participants until Dec. 20.
But once the first weekend of games arrives, how close to kickoff can a game be canceled? Are games canceled if one player tests positive as has been the case in major league baseball? Or will be it two, five or 10 players?
And how would a canceled game impact Ohio State's playoff aspirations? With no apparent flexibility to reschedule games, would the CFP committee use winning percentage, if there is a disparity in games played by contenders, to determine the playoff field?
These are all questions that still need to be addressed.
Then again, it wouldn't be 2020 if there weren't more questions than answers.
"That's what (this year) has been ... a lot of uncertainty," Day said on the Zoom call. "It hasn't been easy for anybody. But to be able to look these (players) in the eye and let them know they have an opportunity to play, and their fight (to play) ... they have something to show for it now.
"Our team is stronger now for going through this."
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