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Equities correct after frenzied week of retail trade – Bangkok Post - Bangkok Post

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Recap: US government stimulus propelled stock markets to record highs, encouraging retail investors to rush in, before an inevitable correction after a bruising battle between hedge funds and retail investors. But European stocks fell yesterday as coronavirus vaccine supply problems cooled risk appetite, while Asian equities also recorded weekly declines.

The SET index moved in a range of 1,455.55 and 1,515.32 points this week before closing yesterday at 1,466.98, down 2.06% from the previous week, in daily turnover averaging 87.56 billion baht.

Retail investors were net buyers of 22.69 billion baht. Foreign investors was net sellers of 13.27 billion, institutional investors sold 7.31 billion and brokers offloaded 2.1 billion baht worth of shares.

Newsmakers: An army of online retail investors sent shares in the struggling US video-game chain GameStop soaring and rattled hedge funds shorting the stock. The frenzy ebbed on Thursday when investing apps including Robinhood started limiting transactions, sending GameStop shares plunging 75%.

  • More episodes similar to the GameStop frenzy are likely as retail investors increase their presence in equity markets worldwide, say analysts. In South Korea, small investors known as "ants" have borrowed so much money to dabble in stocks that at least six brokerages have stopped offering them margin loans.
  • The global economy is expected to see a strong rebound this year, but the coronavirus crisis is causing severe damage, slashing tens of trillions of dollars off GDP, the IMF said on Tuesday.
  • One week into the job, US President Joe Biden has sent a clear warning to Beijing against any expansionist intentions in East and Southeast Asia.
  • President Biden is reimposing a Covid-19 travel ban on most non-US citizens who have been in Britain, Brazil, Ireland and much of Europe, a White House official said, as the new administration ramps up its pandemic response.
  • Apple and Facebook reported stunning gains in profits and revenues over the past quarter, in the latest sign that Big Tech is delivering for pandemic-hit consumers around the world.
  • The US biotech firm Moderna said its vaccine should protect against new coronavirus variants, as borders tightened worldwide and European Union authorities voiced anger over delays to millions of vaccine doses.
  • UK-based AstraZeneca has defended the efficacy of its Covid vaccine after media reports said the German government had doubts about its effectiveness among those over 65.
  • Malaysia on Tuesday struck deals with two domestic companies to purchase 18.4 million doses of vaccines produced by Russia's Gamaleya Institute and China's Sinovac, the health ministry said.
  • Myanmar launched a Covid vaccination programme on Wednesday, with healthcare staff and volunteer medical workers the first to receive shots of the AstraZeneca vaccine donated by neighbouring India.
  • The Thai government is targeting the immunisation of 19 million people against the coronavirus in a first phase of inoculations starting on Feb 14, the prime minister said on Wednesday, amid criticism the government has been slow in rolling out vaccines.
  • An issue of government savings bonds worth 60 billion baht is planned for early next month, with the funds raised being used to finance government projects that will mitigate the pandemic's impact and rehabilitate the economy.
  • The cabinet on Tuesday approved a new relief package, including a 90% reduction in the land and building tax, a cut in property transaction fees and reduced contributions to the Social Security Fund by employees, to ease the economic impacts of Covid. The deadline for the online filing of personal income tax was also extended from March 31 to June 30.
  • Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha has instructed the Finance Ministry to try to provide assistance for those not covered by existing financial relief measures, says Finance Minister Arkhom Termpittayapaisith.
  • The Bank of Thailand and the Office of the Courts of Justice have signed a memorandum of understanding on mediating legal financial disputes for financially distressed borrowers and small and medium enterprises (SMEs).
  • The Fiscal Policy Office (FPO) at the Finance Ministry has cut its economic growth forecast to 2.8% this year, from 4.5% earlier, as foreign tourist arrivals are now expected to be much lower given the second wave of the pandemic.
  • The Export-Import Bank of Thailand is proposing loan assistance to improve liquidity for crippled airlines to retain employees. The plan will require Finance Ministry approval.
  • Digital asset custodian wallet services will soon be regulated under the Digital Asset Business law, in an effort to prevent the use of digital assets in illicit activities such as money laundering, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has announced.
  • Cryptocurrency trading turnover in Thailand reached 14.8 billion baht from Jan 1-24 on seven exchanges, according to SEC data. Three of the exchanges included in the figure only began their operations on Jan 23.
  • The IPO of PTT Oil and Retail Business (OR) attracted strong investor demand on the first day of retail subscriptions on Sunday, so strong that the apps of three banks were overwhelmed by high traffic. Investors were advised to be patient as the subscription period runs until Tuesday.
  • PTG Energy Plc, Thailand's second largest oil retailer by sales volume, is pushing ahead with its diversification into renewable energy and electric vehicle (EV) charging facility projects in a move to avoid tough competition in the retail oil sector.

Coming up: China will release January manufacturing PMI tomorrow and the Caixin manufacturing PMI on Monday. Germany and the US will release January manufacturing PMI on Monday. Australia will announce an interest rate decision on Tuesday, and the euro zone will release fourth-quarter GDP data.

  • The euro zone will release January inflation on Wednesday, the US will release January nonfarm employment and services PMI. Thailand will release January consumer confidence on Thursday, The Bank of England will announce a policy decision, and Australia will release December trade figures.
  • Thailand will release January inflation data on Friday and Australia will release fourth-quarter retail sales. The same day, US will release January nonfarm payrolls and Canada will release January unemployment.

Stocks to watch: Asia Plus Securities recommends three investment themes: stocks benefitting from the lifting of lockdowns including AAV and BAM; fundamental stocks supported by fund inflows including PTT, BDMS, SCCCPF and INSET; and high-dividend stocks with yields above 7% such as TISCO and MCS.

Capital Nomura Securities forecasts the central bank will halve its policy interest rate to 0.25%, further threatening the profit margins of commercial banks, especially large players KTB, TMB, BBL, SCB and KBANK with a downside ranging from 10.1% to 6%. Conversely, the cut will benefit hire-purchase business, consumer finance, property and ICT stocks that offer high dividend returns. Its picks are TISCO, KKS, SAWAD, MTC, AP, SPALI, LH, ADVANC and INTUCH.

Technical view: DBS Vickers Securities sees support at 1,430 points and resistance at 1,500. Maybank Kim Eng Securities sees support at 1,430 and resistance 1,492.

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January 30, 2021 at 04:00AM
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Equities correct after frenzied week of retail trade – Bangkok Post - Bangkok Post
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