Most players scored 11 tricks in 3NT, but a few managed all 13. At Duplicate Pairs, declarer should aim for the maximum number of tricks providing that their play offers a 50 per cent chance or better of success.
K♠ led. At most forms of scoring, you play safely. West’s overcall marks him with five spades, so East holds, at most, three. Therefore, declarer should duck spades twice, winning on the third round. Now, when he takes the club finesse, if it loses, East has no spades to return. The contract is secure.
At Duplicate Pairs, declarer should ask a different question: how likely is it that West holds K♣? East-West have only 10pts between them; the vast majority of the time West will hold K♣ to justify his 1S overcall. If one considers that the finesse will be right, say, 80 per cent of the time, at Pairs scoring, it is definitely correct to play for all the tricks. Declarer must win trick 1 and take the club finesse. If it loses, he goes down; if it is right, he scores an equal top. In the long run, he will score 80 per cent or better on the hand compared to playing safe.
This is why your thinking must change when playing Duplicate bridge: it is little to do with the contract and all about the magnitude of the score.
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November 25, 2020 at 12:23AM
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Contract bridge: Form of scoring often determines the correct line - Financial Times
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