I read with interest Crain's editorial "It's time for state to give restaurants guidance." While I agreed with the overall point, I was alarmed that Crain's would suggest there was "no dispute" that Gov. Gretchen Whitmer's extended lockdown was the cause of reduced COVID cases and is saving lives.
To say there is "no dispute" ignores the fact that there were other choices that could have, and should have, been considered and made. A rational discussion of the measures used and results experienced, here, and elsewhere, will reflect that other states were more successful in saving lives and livelihoods than Michigan.
The debate is worthy because there is still time to make better decisions for better results for all Michigan residents.
First, though, some background to be clear: We needed to, and still need to, take the health threats of this virus seriously. Personal responsibility is the defining factor in staying healthy. The real credit for bringing Michigan's spread of COVID-19 should go to the residents of Michigan.
And I have been wearing a mask since March of 2020. My wife, Molly, was making masks before the government suggested we wear them and before they could be found in stores. We made these choices because it made common sense — they'd reduce our breath, cough or droplets from getting to others.
So, I neither argue that we should throw away caution, nor that a packed club with maskless elbow-to-elbow people makes sense. I'm supporting common sense and an informed and inspired public, because recent data raises questions about the effectiveness of Michigan's extended lockdowns of so many livelihoods, including restaurants and more.
If we look at the timing of the current orders that the Crain's editorial was referencing, there seem to be several reasons to dispute the effectiveness of the orders.
The closure of restaurants was effective on Nov. 18. Science says most people with infections develop symptoms four to five days after exposure. So, the impact of these orders would not have been felt until about Nov. 23. But the data shows Michigan's peak for infections was Nov. 15 and fell rapidly before the orders made an impact. They then continued on that same trajectory after the order.
If we look to other data and compare the trajectory of Michigan's virus cases to Wisconsin's we see the same pattern. Michigan and Wisconsin share a border, both have divided government and had Supreme Court rulings that limited gubernatorial power.
However, Wisconsin is different in that their governor did not pursue an alternative go-it-alone strategy. As a result, they have very different government restrictions. Yet, the data shows they have had the same virus experience during this time.
The data therefore demonstrates it may not be the governor's orders that caused the falling trajectory of the virus spread.
But are the governor's orders saving more lives? If we look again at Wisconsin, but also our neighbors in Ohio and even in Florida we'll find that their reactions emphasizing personal safety, individual responsibility and economic health have resulted in lower death rates and a healthier economy than in Michigan.
Sadly, of these states Michigan has lost the most lives at 163 per 100,000 residents, Ohio 144 people, Florida 139 people and Wisconsin 118 people. The science shows this virus is most dangerous for our older population; and Florida has the country's oldest average age. If excessive restrictions were effective, you'd think Gov. Whitmer's sacrifice of livelihoods would be saving more lives, but they're not.
I work with the West Michigan Policy Forum, and we've been calling to Open Michigan Safely — with safety the key.
We know that not all venues should be fully open, and we've stressed five key strategies from the start: 1) Stay home if you're sick, 2) Wear a mask and practice social distancing, 3) Wear PPE where recommended, 4) Deploy extra hygiene and cleaning, 5) Protect the vulnerable; and we've now added a sixth: Get the vaccine when available.
I agree with Crain's that it's past time to give restaurants guidance. But, the science and data make clear that it's unclear that Gov. Whitmer's orders have been effective at making us safer. Instead, we should welcome the debate and learn from other states.
Michigan's hardworking residents each deserve credit for their personal sacrifices and responsibility. What seems indisputable is that they deserve a better plan of action, one that will indeed protect both lives and livelihoods.
Jase Bolger served as speaker of the Michigan House of Representatives from 2011-14. He is currently president of Tusker Strategies LLC and serves as the policy adviser for the West Michigan Policy Forum.
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February 26, 2021 at 06:35PM
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Jase Bolger: Did Michigan's COVID response really save more lives? - Crain's Detroit Business
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