The grades are in.
For all the leaks, speculation and rumors leading up to the NFL Draft every year, we're reminded annually how inexact a science mock drafts are. Best guesses, best estimations, but still imperfect — very much so.
MORE NFL DRAFT: SN's latest 2021 mock draft | Top 100 big board
Like throwing a Mentos breath mint in a two-liter bottle of Diet Coke, these experiments usually go awry. And that's fine. This is the season for experiments, speculation and smokescreens, after all. It's all in good fun.
So how exactly did the first round work out for some of the best mock guys in the biz?
Below are the first-round projections from final mock drafts submitted before the 2021 draft. Bolded players are correct picks, and analysts get half credit for correct player and correct team but wrong spot. Half points for correct player in correct spot but wrong team.
Vinnie Iyer's mock draft (Sporting News)
Iyer's latest mock draft was released on Draft day, April 29:
| Pick No. | Team | Player | Position | School |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jacksonville Jaguars | Trevor Lawrence | QB | Clemson |
| 2 | New York Jets | Zach Wilson | QB | BYU |
| 3 | San Francisco 49ers (via MIA from HOU) | Mac Jones | QB | Alabama |
| 4 | Atlanta Falcons | Kyle Pitts | TE | Florida |
| 5 | Cincinnati Bengals | Ja'Marr Chase | WR | LSU |
| 6 | Miami Dolphins (from PHI) | Jaylen Waddle | WR | Alabama |
| 7 | Detroit Lions | Penei Sewell | OT | Oregon |
| 8 | Carolina Panthers | Patrick Surtain II | CB | Alabama |
| 9 | Denver Broncos | Trey Lance | QB | North Dakota State |
| 10 | Dallas Cowboys | Jaycee Horn | CB | South Carolina |
| 11 | New York Giants | Rashawn Slater | OT | Northwestern |
| 12 | Philadelphia Eagles (via MIA from 49ers) | DeVonta Smith | WR | Alabama |
| 13 | Los Angeles Chargers | Alijah Vera-Tucker | OL | USC |
| 14 | Minnesota Vikings | Jaelan Phillips | EDGE | Miami |
| 15 | New England Patriots | Justin Fields | QB | Ohio State |
| 16 | Arizona Cardinals | Greg Newsome II | CB | Northwestern |
| 17 | Las Vegas Raiders | Micah Parsons | LB | Penn State |
| 18 | Miami Dolphins | Kwity Paye | EDGE | Michigan |
| 19 | Washington Football Team | Christian Darrisaw | OT | Virginia Tech |
| 20 | Chicago Bears | Teven Jenkins | OT | Oklahoma State |
| 21 | Indianapolis Colts | Gregory Rousseau | EDGE | Miami |
| 22 | Tennessee Titans | Elijah Moore | WR | Ole Miss |
| 23 | New York Jets (from SEA) | Azeez Ojulari | EDGE | Georgia |
| 24 | Pittsburgh Steelers | Najee Harris | RB | Alabama |
| 25 | Jacksonville Jaguars (from LAR) | Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah | LB | Notre Dame |
| 26 | Cleveland Browns | Christian Barmore | DT | Alabama |
| 27 | Baltimore Ravens | Kadarius Toney | WR | Florida |
| 28 | New Orleans Saints | Caleb Farley | CB | Virginia Tech |
| 29 | Green Bay Packers | Zaven Collins | LB | Tulsa |
| 30 | Buffalo Bills | Jayson Oweh | EDGE | Penn State |
| 31 | Baltimore Ravens (from Chiefs) | Trevon Moehrig | S | TCU |
| 32 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Levi Onwuzurike | DT | Washington |
Picks correct: 7.5/32
Noteworthy:
As with all mock drafts outside the top 10, it was a sure crapshoot in the back half. Several first-round talents are still available on Day 2: Owusu-Koramoah, Barmore, Moehrig, Onwuzurike, Jenkins among Day 2 targets for teams.
You can read SN's full seven-round mock draft here.
Mel Kiper's mock draft (ESPN)
Mel Kiper's latest mock draft was released on April 29 and features trades:
| Pick No. | Team | Player | Position | School |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jacksonville Jaguars | Trevor Lawrence | QB | Clemson |
| 2 | New York Jets | Zach Wilson | QB | BYU |
| 3 | San Francisco 49ers (via MIA from HOU) | Mac Jones | QB | Ohio State |
| 4 | Atlanta Falcons | Kyle Pitts | TE | Florida |
| 5 | Cincinnati Bengals | Ja'Marr Chase | WR | LSU |
| 6 | Miami Dolphins (via PHI) | DeVonta Smith | WR | Alabama |
| 7 | New England Patriots (mock trade with DET) | Trey Lance | QB | North Dakota State |
| 8 | Carolina Panthers | Penei Sewell | OT | Oregon |
| 9 | Denver Broncos | Justin Fields | QB | Ohio State |
| 10 | Dallas Cowboys | Patrick Surtain II | CB | Alabama |
| 11 | New York Giants | Jaylen Waddle | WR | Alabama |
| 12 | Philadelphia Eagles (via MIA from SF) | Jaycee Horn | CB | South Carolina |
| 13 | Los Angeles Chargers | Rashawn Slater | OL | Northwestern |
| 14 | Minnesota Vikings | Christian Darrisaw | OT | Virginia Tech |
| 15 | Detroit Lions (mock trade with NE) | Micah Parsons | LB | Penn State |
| 16 | New York Jets (mock trade with ARI) | Alijah Vera-Tucker | OL | USC |
| 17 | Las Vegas Raiders | Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah | LB | Notre Dame |
| 18 | Miami Dolphins | Kwity Paye | DE | Michigan |
| 19 | Washington Football Team | Trevon Moehrig | S | TCU |
| 20 | Chicago Bears | Elijah Moore | WR | Ole Miss |
| 21 | Indianapolis Colts | Jaelan Phillips | DE | Miami |
| 22 | Tennessee Titans | Greg Newsome II | CB | Northwestern |
| 23 | Arizona Cardinals (mock trade with NYJ) | Najee Harris | RB | Alabama |
| 24 | Pittsburgh Steelers | Travis Etienne | RB | Clemson |
| 25 | Jacksonville Jaguars (from LAR) | Kadarius Toney | WR | Florida |
| 26 | Cleveland Browns | Jamin Davis | LB | Kentucky |
| 27 | Baltimore Ravens | Zaven Collins | LB | Tulsa |
| 28 | New Orleans Saints | Caleb Farley | CB | Virginia Tech |
| 29 | Green Bay Packers | Rashod Bateman | WR | Minnesota |
| 30 | Buffalo Bills | Tyson Campbell | CB | Georgia |
| 31 | Los Angeles Chargers (via mock trade with BAL) | Asante Samuel Jr. | CB | Florida State |
| 32 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Christian Barmore | DT | Alabama |
Picks correct: 5/32
Noteworthy:
Kiper came oh so close to getting the Jets trade up right: He had New York moving up to 16, as opposed to 14, to move up for Alijah Vera-Tucker. Still, a near oh-fer in the second half of the draft means Kiper swung big and missed big on a fair amount of picks.
Todd McShay's mock draft (ESPN)
McShay's latest mock draft was released on draft day, April 29:
| Pick No. | Team | Player | Position | School |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jacksonville Jaguars | Trevor Lawrence | QB | Clemson |
| 2 | New York Jets | Zach Wilson | QB | BYU |
| 3 | San Francisco 49ers (via MIA from HOU) | Trey Lance | QB | North Dakota State |
| 4 | Atlanta Falcons | Kyle Pitts | TE | Florida |
| 5 | Cincinnati Bengals | Ja'Marr Chase | WR | LSU |
| 6 | Miami Dolphins (from PHI) | Jaylen Waddle | WR | Alabama |
| 7 | Detroit Lions | Penei Sewell | OT | Oregon |
| 8 | Carolina Panthers | Rashawn Slater | OT | Northwestern |
| 9 | Denver Broncos | Justin Fields | QB | Ohio State |
| 10 | Dallas Cowboys | Patrick Surtain II | CB | Alabama |
| 11 | New York Giants | Kwity Paye | DE | Michigan |
| 12 | Philadelphia Eagles (via MIA from 49ers) | DeVonta Smith | WR | Alabama |
| 13 | Los Angeles Chargers | Alijah Vera-Tucker | OL | USC |
| 14 | Minnesota Vikings | Jaelan Phillips | DE | Miami |
| 15 | New England Patriots | Mac Jones | QB | Alabama |
| 16 | Arizona Cardinals | Jaycee Horn | CB | South Carolina |
| 17 | Las Vegas Raiders | Trevon Moehrig | S | TCU |
| 18 | Miami Dolphins | Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah | LB | Notre Dame |
| 19 | Washington Football Team | Micah Parsons | LB | Penn State |
| 20 | Chicago Bears | Christian Darrisaw | OT | Virginia Tech |
| 21 | Indianapolis Colts | Elijah Moore | WR | Ole Miss |
| 22 | Buffalo Bills (mock trade with TEN) | Travis Etienne | RB | Clemson |
| 23 | New York Jets (from SEA) | Greg Newsome II | CB | Northwestern |
| 24 | Pittsburgh Steelers | Najee Harris | RB | Alabama |
| 25 | Jacksonville Jaguars (from LAR) | Teven Jenkins | OT | Oklahoma State |
| 26 | Cleveland Browns | Christian Barmore | DT | Alabama |
| 27 | Baltimore Ravens | Liam Eichenberg | OT | Notre Dame |
| 28 | New Orleans Saints | Kadarius Toney | WR | Floriday |
| 29 | Green Bay Packers | Jamin Davis | ILB | Kentucky |
| 30 | Buffalo Bills | Caleb Farley | CB | Virginia Tech |
| 31 | Baltimore Ravens (via KC) | Rashod Bateman | WR | Minnesota |
| 32 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Zaven Collins | OLB | Tulsa |
Picks correct: 8.5/32
Noteworthy:
McShay had a strong start, nailing the first seven picks of the draft before the wheels came off outside the top 10. Along with getting Mac Jones to the Patriots right, Najee Harris was the only other pick McShay nailed after the top 10, a popular selection among many mock drafts.
Daniel Jeremiah's mock draft (NFL Network)
DJ's latest mock draft was released on April 28, draft eve.
| Pick No. | Team | Player | Position | School |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jacksonville Jaguars | Trevor Lawrence | QB | Clemson |
| 2 | New York Jets | Zach Wilson | QB | BYU |
| 3 | San Francisco 49ers (via MIA from HOU) | Mac Jones | QB | Alabama |
| 4 | Atlanta Falcons | Kyle Pitts | TE | Florida |
| 5 | Cincinnati Bengals | Penei Sewell | OT | Oregon |
| 6 | Miami Dolphins (from PHI) | Ja'Marr Chase | WR | LSU |
| 7 | Denver Broncos (from DET) | Justin Fields | QB | Ohio State |
| 8 | Carolina Panthers | Patrick Surtain II | CB | Alabama |
| 9 | Detroit Lions | Rashawn Slater | OT | Northwestern |
| 10 | Dallas Cowboys | Jaycee Horn | CB | South Carolina |
| 11 | New England Patriots (from NYG) | Trey Lance | QB | North Dakota State |
| 12 | Philadelphia Eagles (via MIA from 49ers) | DeVonta Smith | WR | Alabama |
| 13 | Los Angeles Chargers | Jaylen Waddle | WR | Alabama |
| 14 | Minnesota Vikings | Jaelan Phillips | EDGE | Miami |
| 15 | New York Giants (from NE) | Micah Parsons | LB | Penn State |
| 16 | Arizona Cardinals | Zaven Collins | LB | Tulsa |
| 17 | Las Vegas Raiders | Alijah Vera-Tucker | OL | USC |
| 18 | Miami Dolphins | Kwity Paye | EDGE | Miami |
| 19 | Washington Football Team | Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah | LB | Notre Dame |
| 20 | Chicago Bears | Greg Newsome II | CB | Northwestern |
| 21 | Indianapolis Colts | Joe Tryon | EDGE | Washington |
| 22 | Tennessee Titans | Elijah Moore | WR | Mississippi |
| 23 | New York Jets (from SEA) | Travis Etienne | RB | Clemson |
| 24 | Pittsburgh Steelers | Teven Jenkins | OT | Oklahoma State |
| 25 | Jacksonville Jaguars (from LAR) | Christian Darrisaw | OT | Virginia Tech |
| 26 | Cleveland Browns | Jamin Davis | LB | Kentucky |
| 27 | Baltimore Ravens | Jayson Oweh | EDGE | Penn State |
| 28 | New Orleans Saints | Tyson Campbell | CB | Georgia |
| 29 | Green Bay Packers | Dillon Radunz | OT | North Dakota State |
| 30 | Buffalo Bills | Asante Samuel Jr. | CB | Florida State |
| 31 | Baltimore Ravens (from KC) | Liam Eichenberg | OT | Notre Dame |
| 32 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Najee Harris | RB | Alabama |
Picks correct: 4.5/32
Noteworthy:
Very rough go of it for DJ this year, with three of the first four picks correct, then getting half credit on DeVonta Smith and the Eagles right later on. Jeremiah also got the Zaven Collins-Arizona pairing correct at No. 16, the only mock here to do so.
Peter King's mock draft (NBC Sports)
Peter King, who actually had the most accurate mock of the 2020 NFL Draft, released his first and final mock draft on April 26:
| Pick No. | Team | Player | Position | School |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jacksonville Jaguars | Trevor Lawrence | QB | Clemson |
| 2 | New York Jets | Zach Wilson | QB | BYU |
| 3 | San Francisco 49ers (via MIA from HOU) | Mac Jones | QB | Alabama |
| 4 | Atlanta Falcons | Kyle Pitts | TE | Florida |
| 5 | Cincinnati Bengals | Ja'Marr Chase | WR | LSU |
| 6 | Miami Dolphins (from PHI) | Jaylen Waddle | WR | Alabama |
| 7 | Detroit Lions | Penei Sewell | OT | Oregon |
| 8 | Carolina Panthers | Justin Fields | QB | Ohio State |
| 9 | Denver Broncos | Trey Lance | QB | North Dakota State |
| 10 | Dallas Cowboys | Patrick Surtain II | CB | Alabama |
| 11 | New York Giants | Micah Parsons | LB | Penn State |
| 12 | Philadelphia Eagles (via MIA from 49ers) | Jaycee Horn | CB | South Carolina |
| 13 | Los Angeles Chargers | Rashawn Slater | T | Northwestern |
| 14 | Minnesota Vikings | Alijah Vera-Tucker | OL | USC |
| 15 | New England Patriots | DeVonta Smith | WR | Alabama |
| 16 | Arizona Cardinals | Greg Newsome II | CB | Northwestern |
| 17 | Las Vegas Raiders | Caleb Farley | CB | Virginia Tech |
| 18 | Miami Dolphins | Jaelan Phillips | EDGE | Miami |
| 19 | Washington Football Team | Christian Darrisaw | OT | Virginia Tech |
| 20 | Chicago Bears | Rashod Bateman | WR | Minnesota |
| 21 | Cleveland Browns (from IND) | Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah | LB | Notre Dame |
| 22 | Baltimore Ravens (from TEN) | Kwity Paye | EDGE | Michigan |
| 23 | New York Jets (from SEA) | Gregory Rousseau | EDGE | Miami |
| 24 | Pittsburgh Steelers | Najee Harris | RB | Alabama |
| 25 | Jacksonville Jaguars (from LAR) | Jayson Oweh | EDGE | Penn State |
| 26 | Indianapolis Colts (from CLE) | Sam Cosmi | OT | Texas |
| 27 | Tennssee Titans (from BAL) | Elijah Moore | WR | Mississippi |
| 28 | New Orleans Saints | Tyson Campbell | CB | Georgia |
| 29 | Green Bay Packers | Jamin Davis | LB | Kentucky |
| 30 | Buffalo Bills | Travis Etienne | RB | Clemson |
| 31 | Baltimore Ravens (from Chiefs) | Landon Dickerson | OL | Alabama |
| 32 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Christian Barmore | DT | Alabama |
Picks correct: 9.5/32
Noteworthy:
Peter King had the best mock last year of certain collected experts, and once again sits atop the mock pile of the collected experts here in 2021.
King earned half credit for the Alijah Vera-Tucker pick at No. 14, which he had mocked to the Vikings, but a trade-up from the Jets landed him in New York instead.
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Grading the 2021 mock drafts: How did Mel Kiper, Daniel Jeremiah, Todd McShay, Peter King & other experts fare? - Sporting News
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