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Professor with track record of predicting correct presidential election outcomes says Trump will lose - PennLive

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A history professor at American University has been correct guessing the presidency every year since 1984.

Now he’s got his latest prediction: Joe Biden will become president after this year’s election.

Allan Lichtman said his system, which is comprised of what he calls his “13 keys,” believes that Biden will defeat incumbent President Donald Trump in November, according to a video op-ed with the New York Times.

Lichtman has predicted the winner of each race since correctly guessing that Ronald Reagan would win reelection in 1984 with his system. The lone blemish on his record remains that he picked Al Gore to win the presidency in 2000, but he has said that he stands by his guess.

“I wasn’t wrong. I correctly predicted that Al Gore would win the popular vote,” Lichtman said in the Times’ video. “When I first developed the system in ’81, you had to go all the way back to 1888 to find a divergence between the popular vote and the electoral college vote.”

After that election, the Times’ video said that he has since changed his system to only call the outright winner and not who will take the popular vote.

According to a report from CNN, his system takes into account the economy, incumbency status, scandals, social unrest and charisma, among other factors.

Lichtman said in the New York Times op-ed that a majority of his keys have to be true in order for the president to win re-election, and if a majority are false, the incumbent will lose. Of his 13 keys, Lichtman said in the Times’ video that seven were false and six were true, meaning that Biden will win in November.

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Professor with track record of predicting correct presidential election outcomes says Trump will lose - PennLive
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