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UT-Austin researchers working to correct model that predicts staggering spike in COVID-19 deaths - San Antonio Express-News

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A University of Texas at Austin model projects that 15,000 more Texans will die of COVID-19 by the end of August.

On Monday, researchers behind the alarming projection said they are working to correct an erroneous data point that skewed the model's conclusions.

Several news outlet reported on the UT COVID-19 Modeling Consortium’s projection, which uses cell phone data and death tolls to predict the number of future deaths.

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The model estimated that between 20,655 and 26,726 people in Texas would die of the virus by Aug. 31 — a staggering increase from the 8,459 cumulative deaths the state reported as of Sunday.

For the San Antonio and New Braunfels metropolitan area, the UT model estimated that between 1,352 and 2,093 residents would die by the end of the month.

Christine Sinatra, a university spokesperson, shed some light on the projections Monday.

"There was an erroneous data point for deaths on July 27 that is biasing the projections, which we are working to correct," Sinatra said in a statement.

On that date, the Texas Department of State Health Services began identifying COVID-19 deaths by the cause of death listed on death certificates. The switch resulted in a single-day spike in the deaths reported.

The UT researchers noted that the projected increase was based on recent upticks in deaths across the state, plus elevated mobility patterns.

"The mortality data do not yet reflect the slowdown in transmission that occurred following mid-June changes in COVID-19 policies and behavior," Sinatra said.

"If mortality data begin to decline, similar to recent declines in COVID-19 case counts and hospitalizations, then the model will naturally update to reflect the trend and its projected deaths will decrease."

A similar model, from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, projects the state's COVID-19 cumulative death toll will reach 11,771 by Aug. 31.

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UT-Austin researchers working to correct model that predicts staggering spike in COVID-19 deaths - San Antonio Express-News
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