There is no one-size-fits-all answer to when Justin Fields should become the Bears starting quarterback, but as Winston Churchill once told us, "Those who fail to learn from history are condemned to repeat it."
Of course if you repeat it that pretty much means it isn't history any more, now it's current, and there is some history you'd love to see repeated like the "Miracle On Ice." Or for Pittsburgh Steelers and Seattle Seahawks fans, how about the rookie campaigns of Ben Roethlisberger and Russell Wilson in their respective first year.
As it relates to Fields, though, the point would be there is much to be learned from the dozens of times this has been tried before and, minimally, it seems like it would be really foolish to ignore all that evidence.
So let's take a look at just the last 10 NFL seasons and see what we can glean.
There have been 25 quarterbacks drafted with a top 15 pick in the drafts between 2011 and 2020.
Players are listed in draft order, first game started, record and passer rating in their first season as a starter.
2011
Cam Newton: G1, 6-10, 84.5
Jake Locker: G1/Y2, 4-7, 74
Blaine Gabbert: G3, 4-10, 65.4
Christian Ponder: G7, 2-8, 70.1
2012
Andrew Luck: G1, 11-5, 76.5
Robert Griffin III: G1, 9-6, 102.4
Ryan Tannehill: G1, 7-9, 76.1
2014
Blake Bortles: G4, 3-10, 69.5
2015
Jameis Winston: G1, 6-10, 84.2
Marcus Mariota: G1, 3-9, 91.5
2016
Jared Goff: G10, 0-7, 63.6
Carson Wentz: G1, 7-9, 79.3
2017
Mitch Trubisky: G5, 4-8, 77.5
Patrick Mahomes: G16, 1-0, 76.4
Deshaun Watson: G2, 3-4, 103
2018
Baker Mayfield: G4, 7-7, 93.7
Sam Darnold: G1, 4-9, 77.6
Josh Allen: G2, 5-7, 67.9
Josh Rosen: G4, 3-10, 66.7
2019
Kyler Murray: G1, 5-10-1, 87.4
Daniel Jones: G3, 3-9, 87.7
Dwayne Haskins: G9, 2-5, 76.1
2020
Joe Burrow: G1, 2-7-1, 89.8
Tua Tagovailoa: G7, 6-3, 87.1
Justin Herbert: G2, 6-9, 98.3
The first thing that screams out is that among the 12 with more than four years experience none are still with the team that drafted them. All but Andrew Luck and Ryan Tannehill have failed unless you want to call Cam Newton a success for his one MVP season. And the Dolphins released Tannehill before he found himself in Tennessee, so there's that.
Of the remaining 13, four have already failed with their initial club. Only Patrick Mahomes is a proven star, although Deshaun Watson was on his way until his off-field issues sidetracked him.
Only 10 have been Day 1 starters as rookies. Of that group, only Luck and Tannehill have gone on to become long-term quality starters (the jury is still out on Joe Burrow and Kyler Murray), and only Luck and Robert Griffin III had winning records as rookie starters.
Griffin was 3-10 his sophomore season and has been a backup ever since.
It is also worth noting eight of the 10 were first- or second-overall picks, Sam Darnold was No. 3 and Tannehill was No. 8. Why not play them, their teams stunk anyway?
The only one that didn't start at some point as a rookie was Jake Locker. Mahomes started Week 17 only because Alex Smith was resting for the playoffs.
That's mainly because only two of these 25 QBs were drafted by teams coming off playoff seasons and expecting to compete again: Mahomes and Watson.
Of course it's easy to use 20-20 hindsight and say most of these guys weren't as good as Fields, but it's an absolute fact that at the time they were drafted every one of them had been evaluated and were expected to be as good as the Bears hope Fields will be.
How much their rookie experiences impacted their failures and/or successes we can't really say.
Here is what we do know.
The Bears have already made Andy Dalton the Week 1 starter, and they didn't give him $10 million to be a backup all year when they already had the best backup in the league in Nick Foles.
Matt Nagy was integral to the plan that saw Mahomes sit his entire rookie season for all practical purposes, and he is clearly the best success story of this group.
This could be the last season we can legitimately project the Bears defense to be one of the best in the league.
Many still believe a losing season will cost Ryan Pace and/or Nagy their jobs, and if history is correct that is almost guaranteed if Fields becomes the starter.
But again there are exceptions to every rule so go ahead, you make the call.
At least you won't get fired if you're wrong.
• Twitter: @Hub_Arkush
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What does history really say about Justin Fields starting right away? - Daily Herald
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